U.S. farmers produced more soybeans, hold more stocks, USDA reports

On Thursday, the USDA pegged the U.S. soybean ending stocks, as of Sept. 1, higher than the trade estimates.

As a result of today’s USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks Report, the CME Group’s soybean complex traded lower, following the report.

At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 2 1/4¢ lower at $5.36. March futures closed 2 1/4¢ higher at $5.44. May corn futures settled 2 3/4¢ lower at $5.49. 
November soybean futures settled 27 1/4¢ lower at $12.56. 

Jan. soybean futures settled 28 1/2¢ lower at $12.65. March soybean futures ended 26 1/2¢ lower at $12.72.

Dec. wheat futures closed 15 3/4¢ higher at $7.25.
Dec. soymeal futures closed $12.50 per short ton lower at $328.70.

Dec. soy oil futures finished 0.86 of a cent higher at 58.69¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 0.07 higher (+0.09%) at $74.90. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 305 points lower (-0.89%) at 34,085 points.

U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks

For corn, the USDA pegged the Sept. 1 quarterly grain stocks at 1.23 billion bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 1.15 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the quarterly grain stocks were pegged at 256 million bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 174 million.

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. wheat quarterly grain stocks at 1.78  billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 1.85 billion bushels.

2020/2021 U.S. Crop Production

For corn, the U.S. 2020/2021 production is estimated at 14.11 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 14.17 billion bushels and the previous USDA estimate of 14.18 billion.

The soybean production is pegged at 4.21 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 4.13 billion bushels and the USDA’s previous estimate of 4.13 billion bushels.

U.S. Wheat Production 2021/2022

In its report, the USDA pegged the All Wheat production at 1.60 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 1.68 billion bushels and the USDA’s August estimate of 1.69 billion bushels.

Trade Reaction

PJ Quaid, RJ O’Brien broker, says that today’s USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report is not friendly for soybean prices.

“A little shocked with some of the numbers and the revisions. USDA dropped feed use, found a lot of beans and corn and I don’t believe the numbers. The ending stocks for beans are very bearish, if true,” Quaid says.

Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, say that this report surprised on the soybeans.

“The lower disappearance numbers are likely due more to logistical and soybean availability issues than to a true decline in soy demand. The lower corn disappearance and higher wheat disappearance seems to indicate feeders used more wheat in the June through August timeframe. By and large this report was slightly bearish, but this year’s yield numbers are what will truly move the markets in the next several months,” Gilbertie says.